What Does Success Look Like?

[aptera1213]

See, this is how people see things differently.

Your post, which is meant to be positive for Aptera, is just about the most depressing post about Aptera's possible future...at least to me.

Aptera having to "hit big #'s quick" to survive means, again to me, that Aptera has no chance to survive.

Aptera's biggest sales will be filling the deposit holders request. After that they can possible get a couple thousand a year. But the whole idea that Aptera 2e will sell 20 thousand or more a year is just insane. And if the BOD was so smart in crunching the numbers, I'm surprised that they are so unaware of their potential market size.

One: electrics are a niche market (at least for the first few years or longer)
Two: 2 seaters are a niche market
Three: Start up car companies are a niche market
Four: Insanely unconventional shape is a niche niche market
Five: Price...at 25k they will sell some Apteras...at 40k, not so much. Price will be major for Aptera.
Six: none-car vehicles are a niche market.

All those things, and much much more, will keep Apteras number low for quite a while. So what happens after the initial deposits are filled and the new orders are less? A slow ramp up actually helps Aptera.

And for the very limited EV market (it will grow, but it will take time. Lack of infrastructure, high prices and range anxiety will take time to overcome) there will be much more "acceptable" choices for most people. Nissan and Ford will get the lions share of the pure EV market. And Fiat and Th!nk will take another bite. Along with Mits and more. And when the market actually grows in 5 years or so, Honda and Toyota and all the big boys will have cars in play.

Aptera needs to embrace it's niche market. And if it can't succeed as a niche car, well then Aptera will not succeed.

But getting out a year or more ahead of Ford and Nissan surely would have been a big help. Proving they can actually make vehicles and get them on the road and into customers hands would have helped. And then getting out a better version would have helped more...just like the big boys do.

Getting out after won't kill them if they can succeed as a very very niche market seller, but there are options now that weren't there when Aptera jumped to the front.

Gavin

[APTODRIV]

If they hit the market with a real vehicle and in the 30-35k range, they'll easily sell 10k+/yr. I've seen much more niche-strange vehicles sell decent #'s. 20k is tiny when you talk nation-wide distribution. I wouldn't be surprised if they sold 30k in the first two years in CA alone. Building them fast enough to meet demand will be the big hurdle.

Don't get depressed, you're basing your prediction of failure on what a few mis-informed naysayers are stating as facts. No one on here has enough info about the situation to make an accurate prediction.

Luckily we're seeing renewed action @ Aptera and , provided they continue to meet milestones for X-prize, there should be plenty of new info to chew on in the coming months. Hopefully fewer dirt-digging "expose" articles and more tech for us techno-geeks.

[PatQ562]

Another quirky, limited, 2-seater vehicle is currently struggling in the USA but I see more of them on the road every week. The Smart car sales, according to a fan site:

2008 sales:
3.476 cars through March 08
2.683 cars in April
2,695 cars in May
2,545 cars in June
2,559 cars in July
2,420 cars in August
1,778 cars in September
2,236 cars in October
1,889 cars in November
2,341 cars in December
24,622 total for 2008

2009 sales:

1,776 cars in January
1,415 cars in February
1,746 cars in March
1,345 cars in April
1,169 cars in May
1,116 cars in June
1,418 cars in July
1,622 cars in August
814 cars in September
661 cars in October
649 cars in November
864 cars in December
14,595 total for 2009; 39,217 cars total for the first 2 years

2010 sales:

278 cars in January
442 cars in February; 39,937 cars total to date

This is for a car which is widely dissed as "not so smart" among my friends because mpg isn't fabulous considering its limitations, price is just fair, and it looks unstable (tall and tippy). They have sold 20X more in Europe (close to a million). Why couldn't this could be the Aptera 2e? The efficiency and technology distinctions are far more compelling.

That said, yes, I'm afraid the Aptera is a "Hail Mary Shot". But we can always hope.

Pat Q

[aptera1213]

Time will tell which of us is right I guess.

I wish them well...hell I wish them 20k sales a year.

I don't think it will happen with the 2e, either the old version or the newer one. People are afraid of new things...and three wheels will be "uncomfortable" for most.

Heck how many Insights could Honda sell in a year? And they had a name and nationwide sales. Aptera has neither. And the Insight didn't need special infrastructure nor caused range anxiety.

Gavin

ps...i don't think they have to fail...i just hope they have a business model for 3 to 5 thousand cars a year. and that isn't new...i've always thought they would sell about 3 to 5 thousand a year.

Smart is a good example. Lots of sales the first year...almost none now. The people who wanted one have one. It will be the same with the 2e. Good sales the first year or two, then almost none. The people who want such a "strange" car will already have one...and by then there will be other models with better features that people will buy. Like Smart is seeing now. For most to almost all, why buy an 2e if you can get a Focus Ev for less and have a "real" car that has a back seat? Etc etc...now add the 500ev to the mix and Toyota brings an EV and Honda and....where does that leave Aptera?

[KarenRei]

Originally Posted by APTODRIV

PatQ pretty much nailed the situation with Aptera. If they are to survive, they have to go in loaded for bear. Doing a low-volume production run of not quite there first tries in an effort to generate demand is a trick the big guys pull (GM EV1, Ford Th!nk, Ranger). A small company cannot afford to loose money on a few thousand vehicles to prime the market. Some smart fella (or a few of em) on the board probably crunched the #'s and came to the same conclusion. The reason EVs are so expensive thus far is the very reason Aptera needs to hit big #'s quick. Economies of scale, especially with EVs, are the only way to roll.

If anything, Aptera was a couple years EARLY to the game to be in a position to meet their price target.

I can't disagree with this more.

1) The Big Three almost never does limited volume. They only do limited volume of things that they don't want to produce in volume or of high-end halo cars that don't have markets big enough to justify high volume. In the case of the late '90s, the "don't want to produce" was electric vehicles.

2) The reason the Big Three hates limited volume is that they primarily work with steel. Tooling for steel costs an order of magnitude as much as tooling for composites. Now, at the same time, it means a lower unit cost. But what this means is that the minimum cost-effective production rate for composites is far lower than it is for steel.

3) Composite shops almost never start out at high volumes, for the reasons in #2.

4) Aptera will not under any circumstance be a driver of EV hardware costs. Nissan and Renault will, sure. But Aptera? No.

5) Small startup companies *must* ship to earn investor confidence. It's Business 101, and it's something that's been quite held out in the past year and a half.

I could go on and on. I disagree with this post on so many levels.

[aptera1213]

Total global sales for the first generation Insight were 17,020 units. From 1999 to 2006. 7 years.

I can see Aptera maybe doing these numbers. I hope they can and I hope they can survive doing it.

This was Honda.


Smart is another good example. They're selling 500 cars a month. I can see Aptera selling 500 a month in the beginning. Maybe even keeping that number steady for a few years. If Aptera can make it at 5000 cars a year, cool. That will be better than Honda could do with a niche, aerodynamic 2 seater that looked "different".

Gavin

[KarenRei]

Originally Posted by APTODRIV

Please do, your rants loose more credibility daily.

Parry: When saying that someone is losing credibility, you might want to try spelling "lose" correctly.

Riposte: While it's silly to claim that a person is losing credibility while not offering any defense of said claim, it's only reasonable to point out that Aptera has been repeatedly challenged to point out anywhere I've lied and has failed to do so (only arguing about points of opinion) -- yet they've been repeatedly caught in lie after lie.

[aptera1213]

Another example. The highest reviewed, most fun and loved 2 seater in recent years...the Mazda Miata: Convertible, sporty, affordable, a "car" with a national name and a national sales and service network.

US sales:

1989 23,052 Starts off pretty darn good.
1990 35,944 Wow...even better.
1991 31,240
1992 24,964
1993 21,588
1994 21,400
1995 20,174
1996 18,408
1997 17,218
1998 19,845
1999 17,738
2000 18,299
2001 16,486
2002 14,392
2003 10,920
2004 9,356 A low point for what has been a great selling model
2005 9,801
2006 16,897 A new model helps, but still the sales are 1/2 of high
2007 15,075
2008 10,977

Possible the most loved and commercially successful 2 seater of all time.

And they only topped 30k a year twice in 20 years. And only topped 20k five times. With nationwide sales. Nationwide service. And a good price, without range issues and other "concerns" for the average buyer.

And you think Aptera can sell 30k in California alone in the first two years?

That would truly be special, but I really hope the BOD aren't thinking and planning on that to survive.

Gavin

[aptera1213]

Originally Posted by APTODRIV

Please do, your rants loose more credibility daily.

Sigh...and here I thought we were going to have an Adult conversation. With points made. Some facts. An opinion here and there.


Gavin

[APTODRIV]

Originally Posted by aptera1213

Sigh...and here I thought we were going to have an Adult conversation. With points made. Some facts. An opinion here and there.


Gavin

Yea, I got ahead of myself. Retract.