early adopters

[Tkaypro]

http://www.allcarselectric.com/news/1061805_who-make-the-best-electric-car-sales-people-early-adopters

PW thought the early adopters of the Aptera would kill future sales and jeopardize the whole company. (I wonder if it simply was he couldn't relate technically to the typical early EV adopter.) Some of us thought the early adopters would have been their biggest fans and lead to an organic growth. I suppose we'll never know for sure, but it seems some "auto industry" experts missed the boat.

-Tricia

[Grendal]

How could having a large group of people eagerly awaiting your product, with a deposit! no less, somehow be a bad thing. Everything I've learned about PBW leads me to believe the guy was a terrible CEO/Leader. Lets see:

1. Cannot see the bigger picture.
2. Hires people who can't do the job or does it badly.
3. Makes bad business decisions.
4. Lies.
5. People who are enthusiastic or motivated are enemies.
6. People who do their jobs well are enemies.
7. Focuses on the wrong issues.
8. Is not interested in pleasing the customer.

That's just a quick list off the top of my head - there are plenty of others.

[PatQ562]

There is some reason to be skeptical about early adopters, but there are strategies to improve success. Conventional wisdom suggests a bell-shaped curve of product acceptance over time -- first the early adopters who are interested in seeing how the new thing works, then the early majority who see it as a way to gain advantage, then the late majority who get it to stay up with the pack, and finally the hold-outs who just aren't interested. You would think a worthy product would move smoothly from one stage to the next, but sometimes progress stalls after reaching the early adopters. "Crossing the chasm" from early adopters to the early majority, where real success lies, requires an understanding of their motivations. Early adopters are motivated by a desire to be different and actively looking for something ahead of the curve, whereas "early majority" are progressive, but mainly interested in meeting their needs in a practical way. Customers mainly reference within their own groups, so success with early adopters doesn't necessarily influence the early majority. Material has been published on this problem and progressive management should be paying attention. There are a number of strategies to improve success, but ultimately there is nothing like demonstrated results. It can take a while, but the introduction of the early VW followed this curve because the product worked well enough to overcome its obvious differences. One tactic to win over skeptics is to find a parallel that pragmatic customers can relate to. It would probably leave the main market cold to position the Aptera as a "more comfortable motorcycle", but it could succeed as "an unconventional but advanced economy car - the VW bug of the 21st century". But early adopters are still necessary as a willing test market to debug and prove out the product.

Pat Q

[rayfellow]

Hay Pat.. I think you've hit the nail on the head, and it's also why I think the Edison VLC is got a good chance of making it..

I was one of those, who at the age of 18 or so was able to own a '56 VW.. It had the same qualities as the VLC.. #1: Fun to drive (it really handled well) #2: enough room - To take you, your friends, your camping gear, skis etc to where ever you wanted to go. #3: Inexpensive - the VW went twice or 2/3's as far on a gallon of gas, and it didn't cost that much to buy outright. #4: It is a cool car - 'different' politically and ecologically correct vehicle.. A small carbon foot print.

The Aptera is far and away the most beautiful machine around.. and economical... The killer for me was the 92" between the two front wheels and a 2 passenger vehicle. As much as I loved it, it became obvious to me that my needs required a narrower car and one that was able, on occasion, to carry 4 people.

[PatQ562]

I can't argue with the position that a narrower, 4-wheel vehicle, with 4 seats, is more useful than the 3-wheel, 2-seat Aptera, but the hurdles of getting thru full federal testing to qualify as a "real car", certified to sell in real numbers, is practically prohibitive for a startup, although Wheego seems to have squeaked by. The ability to get to market without going thru all this testing, as a motorcycle, was Aptera's ace in the hole but they didn't play the card.

Pat Q

[Tkaypro]

Why didn't Aptera play that card? I watched the painful transition PW made away from the motorcycle to attempting to meet all the FMVSS standards. This was all before the DOE reason came into the picture. Once the DOE loan was an option, he felt vindicated I'm sure. PW and his team wanted mainstream and that meant FMVSS. They were so afraid of getting sued that they thought FMVSS would protect them. PW sold this to the BOD. I wish I had some the PW directed CAD drawings where he wanted the license plate mounted on the tip of the nose.

He also sold the BOD the idea of Aptera becoming mainstream before they were ready. He thought he could bypass the "early adopter" stage. Maybe they should read Crossing the Chasm before attempting to execute any business plan, provided they get the money. Having the DOE money will not help them across the "chasm". Aptera still could have manufactured the motorcycle and then applied to the DOE for the four-wheeler.

-Tricia

[aptera1213]

what is crazy is that every single one of us "early adopters" would have sold the hell out of the Aptera...and any little quirks or flaws would have; 1) been easily accepted by us...maybe even liked and appreciated...quirks and minor flaws are nothing to an early adopter... and 2) if these quirks or flaws or shortcomings were brought up by potential future customers, well the early adopters would easily tell people that version 2 is coming very soon and these issues will be resolved.

seeing this car on the road was going to be a HUGE selling point. Talking to owners who loved their Apteras was going to be a HUGE selling point. Having an actually running "car" on city streets was going to be a HUGE selling point.

Sigh.

Gavin

[randyd]

Sigh.
What a shame.

[dfbvt]

Originally posted by aptera1213
Sigh.
+1

Dave Bowles :mad:

[gundersonrogers]

Grendal, @ 06-19-2011, 09:02 PM,

Recent surfing reveals that Ford, Toyota, and BMW/Mini are all coming out with 2014 plug-in hybrids -and in Mini's case, a smaller diesel "Mini Rocket" --under 1800 pounds, and to get about 66 mpg. Ford actually has two models, the CMax all-electric, and the Energi plug-in hybrid. These seem to be platforms mirroring the Aptera plan.

With the Billions these immense companies have invested in ramping up this new technology, and with it seeming to begin in a couple of years with 2014 models, it's easier to believe PW was brought in to delay Aptera. Imagine the political pressures on Congress around CAFE standards, and fleet mileage requirements if Aptera had been putting out 200 mpg cars for years!

If Aptera finally does appear on the market for the 2014 model year, I will feel that PW's role was indeed to purposely delay Aptera's appearance on the market. Why the conspiracy theory? --because of your list of PW leadership practices. Nobody's that bad by mistake, and kept in place by a BOD.

And, I had my heart set on driving an Aptera three years ago. When I reluctantly requested my deposit returned this past April, it was letting go a dream. The reality of commuting in an Aptera seemed a reasonable possibility in 2008. Behind the scenes politics must have been ugly. Wish I could have lunch with Steve Fambro and Chris Anthony. We could all cry over this spilt milk.

[Grendal]

Grendal, @ 06-19-2011, 09:02 PM,

Recent surfing reveals that Ford, Toyota, and BMW/Mini are all coming out with 2014 plug-in hybrids -and in Mini's case, a smaller diesel "Mini Rocket" --under 1800 pounds, and to get about 66 mpg. Ford actually has two models, the CMax all-electric, and the Energi plug-in hybrid. These seem to be platforms mirroring the Aptera plan.

With the Billions these immense companies have invested in ramping up this new technology, and with it seeming to begin in a couple of years with 2014 models, it's easier to believe PW was brought in to delay Aptera. Imagine the political pressures on Congress around CAFE standards, and fleet mileage requirements if Aptera had been putting out 200 mpg cars for years!

If Aptera finally does appear on the market for the 2014 model year, I will feel that PW's role was indeed to purposely delay Aptera's appearance on the market. Why the conspiracy theory? --because of your list of PW leadership practices. Nobody's that bad by mistake, and kept in place by a BOD.

And, I had my heart set on driving an Aptera three years ago. When I reluctantly requested my deposit returned this past April, it was letting go a dream. The reality of commuting in an Aptera seemed a reasonable possibility in 2008. Behind the scenes politics must have been ugly. Wish I could have lunch with Steve Fambro and Chris Anthony. We could all cry over this spilt milk.

Being a smart and well reasoned individual like you seem to be, I can understand how easy it would be to project that on to PBW. But I have worked with a number of people who have similar traits to PBW and watched them very quickly destroy brilliant ideas and derail a project's momentum. PBW gives the illusion that he is competent and a great leader but the reality is that he is truly not what he wants people to believe. Steve and Tricia would know the man better than I, but my instincts say that someone who was intentionally attempting to ruin and derail the Aptera would have done it in a more intelligent and systematic way. The level of incompetence PBW displayed could only be done by someone who was truly incompetent.

There's my 2 cents for what it is worth.

[PatQ562]

I believe we can piece a story together from tidbits revealed in the last several months. The Aptera BOD felt that they needed to go "big time" to recoup the $24M investment, hence the recruitment of big-time car guy Paul Wilbur and their willingness to ride the ship right into the ground. As we all know, the results have been dismal, but as Napoleon famously said "Never ascribe to malice that which can be explained by incompetence".

It seemed as if Steve and gang had the pieces lined up to do moderate production volumes, but at $5K-$10K profit per car (probably optimistic) they would need to sell 2500-5000 vehicles just to break even, which must have seemed too slow to the BOD. Unfortunately, a lot of "heavy hitters" have lived too long in their corporate boardrooms. They may have the skills to talk other semi-competent people into making big decisions, but they don't understand the hands-on realities of using a small team to get a reasonable product out quickly. It's not easy in the best of cases, and there's a lot of risk.

Pat Q

[dfbvt]

Grendal, @ 06-19-2011, 09:02 PM,

If Aptera finally does appear on the market for the 2014 model year, I will feel that PW's role was indeed to purposely delay Aptera's appearance on the market. Why the conspiracy theory? --because of your list of PW leadership practices. Nobody's that bad by mistake, and kept in place by a BOD.

I generally tend be very suspicious about conspiracy theorys but I have to admit that I've considered many times that PW was selected by "somebody" to fully kill the company, not just to delay it. He certainly could not have done a better job of it for sure. On the other hand, you never know what ugliness you might find when you start following the dollar trail........

We probably will never know exactly what happened (yeah, that was a past tense word - sigh).

Dave Bowles

[Grendal]

I believe we can piece a story together from tidbits revealed in the last several months. The Aptera BOD felt that they needed to go "big time" to recoup the $24M investment, hence the recruitment of big-time car guy Paul Wilbur and their willingness to ride the ship right into the ground. As we all know, the results have been dismal, but as Napoleon famously said "Never ascribe to malice that which can be explained by incompetence".

It seemed as if Steve and gang had the pieces lined up to do moderate production volumes, but at $5K-$10K profit per car (probably optimistic) they would need to sell 2500-5000 vehicles just to break even, which must have seemed too slow to the BOD. Unfortunately, a lot of "heavy hitters" have lived too long in their corporate boardrooms. They may have the skills to talk other semi-competent people into making big decisions, but they don't understand the hands-on realities of using a small team to get a reasonable product out quickly. It's not easy in the best of cases, and there's a lot of risk.

Pat Q

I agree, Pat. While PBW might have been incompetent in running a company he was very good at slinging the BS. Enough has come out to confirm he hired a polling firm to generate the belief that people "wanted" roll down windows and a more mainstream vehicle. They also, per the poll, wanted a "complete" vehicle that needed top tier vendors. Those generated polls were obviously used to sway the BOD into his "we need to go big!" agenda. Again, this follows the pattern of a self-centered egotist that imagines he has a leadership ability that he just doesn't have. PBW strikes me as a small scale meglomaniac that believed that he knew what was right for Aptera and did everything he could to erase Steve and Chris"s vision with his own. I still believe that Steve and Chris, with no experience, could have done a better job than PBW. They'd have made mistakes along the way that someone with experience might have avoided, but their tenacity and desire to get the product into the hands of their customers would have gone a long way to make Aptera the great vehicle it had the potential to be.

No conspiracy - just stupidity and ego.

[palmer_md]

I believe we can piece a story together from tidbits revealed in the last several months. The Aptera BOD felt that they needed to go "big time" to recoup the $24M investment, hence the recruitment of big-time car guy Paul Wilbur and their willingness to ride the ship right into the ground. As we all know, the results have been dismal, but as Napoleon famously said "Never ascribe to malice that which can be explained by incompetence".

It seemed as if Steve and gang had the pieces lined up to do moderate production volumes, but at $5K-$10K profit per car (probably optimistic) they would need to sell 2500-5000 vehicles just to break even, which must have seemed too slow to the BOD. Unfortunately, a lot of "heavy hitters" have lived too long in their corporate boardrooms. They may have the skills to talk other semi-competent people into making big decisions, but they don't understand the hands-on realities of using a small team to get a reasonable product out quickly. It's not easy in the best of cases, and there's a lot of risk.

Pat Q

I agree, Pat. While PBW might have been incompetent in running a company he was very good at slinging the BS. Enough has come out to confirm he hired a polling firm to generate the belief that people "wanted" roll down windows and a more mainstream vehicle. They also, per the poll, wanted a "complete" vehicle that needed top tier vendors. Those generated polls were obviously used to sway the BOD into his "we need to go big!" agenda. Again, this follows the pattern of a self-centered egotist that imagines he has a leadership ability that he just doesn't have. PBW strikes me as a small scale meglomaniac that believed that he knew what was right for Aptera and did everything he could to erase Steve and Chris"s vision with his own. I still believe that Steve and Chris, with no experience, could have done a better job than PBW. They'd have made mistakes along the way that someone with experience might have avoided, but their tenacity and desire to get the product into the hands of their customers would have gone a long way to make Aptera the great vehicle it had the potential to be.

No conspiracy - just stupidity and ego.

Both posts are right on the money. Well said.

[dfbvt]

Grendal,

I still believe that Steve and Chris, with no experience, could have done a better job than PBW. They'd have made mistakes along the way that someone with experience might have avoided, but their tenacity and desire to get the product into the hands of their customers would have gone a long way to make Aptera the great vehicle it had the potential to be.



I absolutely agree with you 100%. Steve and Chris had one hugely important edge over PBW. Passion. Passtion for what they were trying to achieve. It spilled over in to their employees and of course on to the core people all over this world on this (or were on on) this forum. Passion is a VERY key element to any start up company.

palmer_md

No conspiracy - just stupidity and ego.


Agreed. Sigh...

Dave Bowles