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View Full Version : 5/20/09 - Electric cars are coming! - salon.com


c0mp13x
05-21-2009, 09:59 AM
"...which looks like an insect and has three wheels."

http://www.salon.com/env/feature/2009/05/20/electric_cars/index.html

Electric cars are coming!

We're sorry to be buzz kills. But we've heard this one before. Like in 1990. And 1910. Do the automakers have the juice this time?

http://www.salon.com/env/feature/2009/05/20/electric_cars/md_horiz.jpg
Left to right: Chevy Volt, Tesla, Aptera,
Mini Cooper E, Mitsubishi i-MiEV, Prius Electric


By Katharine Mieszkowski

May 20, 2009 | On Tuesday, when President Obama proposed the first nationwide regulation of greenhouse gases, which would set limits on tailpipe emissions for cars and trucks, he jacked up the buzz about electric cars. The new regulation requires new cars and light trucks to get on average 35.5 miles per gallon by 2016, which is almost 40 percent more fuel-efficient than the requirements today. Automakers, which have kicked and screamed for generations about increasing fuel efficiency, stood politely by Obama, having to suck it up, as their fortunes now depend on the government. In good part, they will attempt to meet the goal with a flashy new line of cars powered by the electrical outlet in your garage.

"The industry is already transitioning. Hybrid cars are the first step toward electric drive vehicles, and the question now is how fast will the transformation take place," says professor Daniel Sperling, director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California at Davis, and coauthor of the recent book "Two Billion Cars: Driving Toward Sustainability."

On May 6, Ford declared it would spend hundreds of millions of dollars to convert an SUV plant near Detroit to churn out the Ford Focus. By 2011, the plant would be producing battery-electric versions of the diminutive car. Nissan recently claimed that 10 percent of its new cars will be electric by 2016. Mitsubishi plans to unleash its i-MiEV in Japan this year and bring it to the U.S. in 2012. Toyota, which has dominated the hybrid market with its Prius, plans to launch an electric Prius by 2012. Even famed investor Warren Buffett is jumping on the buzzwagon: He's bought a stake in BYD, a Chinese battery and electric car company.

The big automakers can thank independent upstarts for helping electric cars today lose their glorified golf-cart stigma. The flashy, very limited Tesla Roadster goes for a cool $110,000. If that's a bit steep for you, you're welcome to put down a $5,000 deposit for the forthcoming Tesla Model S, which will go for around $57,000. Some 1,000 would-be Model S drivers already have done so. (German automaker Daimler announced that it bought an almost 10 percent stake in Tesla on Tuesday.) Not to be outdone on the innovation front, there's the $27,000 Aptera, which looks like an insect and has three wheels.

The car in the eye of the publicity storm is the Chevy Volt, which the automaker calls an "extended-range electric vehicle," which promises to travel its first 40 miles on electricity, before burning any gas. Obama has said he wants to see 1 million plug-in hybrids on the road in the U.S. by 2015. He's committed some $14.4 billion in stimulus money to an electric-car future, including $2 billion for battery manufacturing.

The buzz is intoxicating. Yet for 100 years the electric car has shimmered on the horizon, like a mirage, always fleetingly out of reach. Today, even with advances in battery technology, as the major automakers unveil their forthcoming models, they're still hedging their bets that the internal combustion engine's glory days aren't over.

"The technology is always down the road; the better battery is always in the future," says Michael Schiffer, an anthropology professor at the University of Arizona, and author of "Taking Charge: The Electric Automobile in America." "People have been promising better batteries for over a century." Indeed, in 1909, a magazine advertisement for Baker Electric Vehicles touted the revolutionary new cars as "the Aristocrats of Motordom," which would go "100 Miles on One Charge of the Batteries." A century later, in 2009, the Mini Cooper's electric cousin the Mini E, now being leased in a pilot program to 450 drivers in New York, New Jersey and California, promises to go -- you guessed it! -- over 100 miles.

While electric-car enthusiasts naturally welcome the flurry of developments, Marc Geller, co-founder of Plug in America, a nonprofit that advocates electric vehicles, can't help lamenting the time lost by automakers, which turned their back on the vehicles in the 1990s. "The tragedy is that in the '90s this could have been done at much lower cost in every respect," Geller says. "We would be 10 years down the road in terms of achieving economies of scale and understanding consumer demand. At that point, you had profitable car companies attempting to do it, and at this point you have unprofitable car companies doing it essentially on the public dime."

Indeed, the automakers are going electric in part to win the Washington handout. They haven't all of a sudden sprouted an environmental conscience or instituted unique business plans to profit from electric cars. "It's almost impossible at this point for General Motors to make a dime on the Volt," says David Kirsch, a professor at the University of Maryland Business School, and author of "The Electric Vehicle and the Burden of History." "They've got to do it to get money from the federal government. Talk about a loss leader."

Ellen Spertus is one driver who can be forgiven for viewing the new generation of electric cars with some skepticism. Back in 2002, the Mills College computer science professor was the happy driver of an EV1, which was General Motors' zippy two-seat electric car.

"An American car company had a fantastic lead and threw it away"

See part 2 of this article here: http://www.salon.com/env/feature/2009/05/20/electric_cars/index1.html

:happy0025:

KarenRei
05-21-2009, 11:25 AM
"People have been promising better batteries for over a century."

And they've been getting them. Energy density has 4x'ed in the past 15-20 years and power density 10x'ed. When it comes to modern batteries, I can't help but be reminded of the phrase, "letting perfect be the enemy of good".

It's quite true that the first two quarters of the last century saw little in terms of battery advancement, and the next quarter only a moderate amount. But the rate of battery advancements have really been skyrocketing in the past several decades, driven by the modern consumer electronics market (which really started coming into its own in the 1980s)

Indeed, in 1909, a magazine advertisement for Baker Electric Vehicles touted the revolutionary new cars as "the Aristocrats of Motordom," which would go "100 Miles on One Charge of the Batteries." A century later, in 2009, the Mini Cooper's electric cousin the Mini E, now being leased in a pilot program to 450 drivers in New York, New Jersey and California, promises to go -- you guessed it! -- over 100 miles.

The Mini E gets 120-150 miles range, depending on which drivecycle you use. The best early 1900s EVs got just over 100 miles... at *20 miles per hour*. I.e., almost no aero drag. And with almost nothing in terms of safety features, poor traction wheels, etc.

But as the recession has brought gas prices down, hybrids aren't looking as hot.

http://avto-ya.ru/wp-content/plugins/wp-o-matic/cache/32ebf_hybrid-sales-march-2009.png

Light duty car sales are down 36%. Hybrid sales are down 44%. That's not much of a difference. For car with higher upfront costs during a period of relatively cheap gas, it's actually pretty impressive that they held their own that well. And they're only down to between their 2006 and 2007 levels.
"In 1898, none other than Thomas Edison promised the super battery,"

And he *did* make what was pretty much the super-battery of his day -- the Nickel-Iron battery. Not in terms of energy density, but in terms of lifespan. Some of his nickel-iron cells still run today.

Schiffer takes an even dimmer view. "Battery technology is really mature

Translation: Schiffer is a moron.

KarenRei
05-21-2009, 11:57 AM
As a followup on the whole persistant "batteries haven't improved" myth, I looked up the energy densities of commercial NiMH batteries over time. According to "Studies on rechargeable NiMH batteries", introduced to the market in 1989, they started at about 45Wh/kg. Today's mass-market LiCoO2/graphite li-ion cells top out at about 200Wh/kg. That's a 4.5x increase in 18 years.

KarenRei
05-21-2009, 12:22 PM
Lol, I completely missed this part:

"The technology is always down the road; the better battery is always in the future," says Michael Schiffer, an anthropology professor at the University of Arizona.

As one commenter put it:

I always look to anthropology professors when I want to find out the latest about automotive technology, just as I go to an opthamologist when my teeth hurt and a dentist when I need glasses.

kerbe
05-21-2009, 08:09 PM
"But anybody who is pinning their hopes for electric cars and hybrids on better batteries is deluding themselves."

He's also got grammar issues...